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CORVALLIS, Ore. - New computer models are now being perfected that may make upcoming forest fire seasons a little more predictable.

Researchers at Oregon State University and the U.S. Forest Service have developed a system that combines the power of long-term climate models, fire models and the latest weather data to predict the general location and intensity of forest or rangeland fire in the near future.

The system, created with a $500,000 grant as part of the National Fire Plan, should give state and federal planners a much better chance in future years of estimating how bad the upcoming summer fire season may be and where the greatest risks lie.

"We have the existing climate models and fire models to predict fire issues for long-term purposes, and this initiative should enable us to significantly improve our short-term projections for the next year, two or three," said Ronald Neilson, a courtesy professor at Oregon State University and bioclimatologist with the U.S. Forest Service.

"Eventually, we'd like to add in data about past fire suppression efforts and other land use characteristics to develop some very reliable predictive tools."

The leaders in developing this technology, along with Neilson, were Jim Lenihan and Ray Drapek, who are former OSU faculty now with the U.S. Forest Service; and two current OSU faculty members, Chris Daly, an assistant professor of geosciences, and Dominique Bachelet, with the OSU Department of Bioresource Engineering.

The data needed to predict what might happen in the next few months actually goes back to 1895, Neilson said. The process will combine a wealth of knowledge about long-term climate trends with short-term weather phenomena and the implications it should have for fire potential.

The model does not now, and may never have a degree of such specificity that it can predict actual fires to a certain location and month, the researchers say, but should nonetheless be quite valuable for advance planning and general resource allocation.

And it's already pretty good - among other accomplishments, the model accurately predicted that in 1988 the Yellowstone Park region would suffer enormous wildfires, which is exactly what happened.

Some of the first runs of the model were just made for short-term predictions, and they suggest - not that it's a huge surprise at this point - that 2002 will be one of the worst fire seasons on record in the American West.